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Loudoun County Weather Outlook for Wednesday, September 6, 2023

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Super HOT TODAY! Strong Storms are possible tomorrow and Friday. 
We could hit 100 as we are on track based on the time of day and current temperature near 90 at 11am.
* Today – Hi 99  Lo 71 
* Thursday – Hi 95  Lo 68 – 50% Chance Storms – some strong possible
* Friday – Hi 89  Lo 66 – 60% Showers & Storms – some strong possible
* Saturday – Hi 85  Lo 66 – 70% Chance of showers and storms
* Sunday – Hi 80  Lo 66 – 50% chance of showers
* Monday – Hi 83  Lo 62 – Nice! 
* Tuesday – Hi 82  Lo 60 – 30% chance of showers 
The amount of rain we get over the next 7 days is not certain. There were some drier trends on the models yesterday, but it seems we could see between 1 and 2 inches of rain, but thunderstorms could help locally. 
The trend in the longer range is better for rain chances and below-normal precipitation!
Attached
* Precip the next seven days
* Storm Prediction Center Storm Outlooks for Tomorrow and Friday
* Long Range temperatures for the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day periods
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Loudoun County Weather Outlook for Tuesday, September 5, 2023

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It will be hot today, tomorrow, and Thursday (though less so on Thursday). There is now some outlook for stronger storms on Thursday — The map is for Thursday!

We need rain. We really need it!

We MAY (and I want to re-emphasize MAY) see up to an inch, with some local spots seeing more if thunderstorms occur.

We can hope!

So far, my high here in my backyard is up to 95 degrees. Yesterday was the hottest of the year for me at 98.

The rain outlook for the next seven days is also posted.

Are cooler times coming? Models continue to hint at that, so the last graphic is the outlook for the 8 to 14-day period. They also point to multiple chances of some fronts passing through. I am still hoping for a fall-like storm to form along one of the fronts to give us some good rains.

As a reminder, check out https://Explorefall.com . They are noting that the dry conditions and stress on the trees are likely a problem for a good fall foliage season. Last year was absolutely stunning!

The last map is their map noting the tree stress. See the post on X (formerly twitter) and follow them there – https://twitter.com/ExploreFall/status/1699034566651195489?s=20

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8/31/2023 – Drought Emergency and Drought Watches Hot week ahead!

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As expected, we have been put into a Severe Drought out in Western Loudoun and further west. A moderate drought for most of the rest of the area. 
We also have a drought emergency for the groundwater levels. 
So we are under a drought watch, but it could be an emergency soon!
The forecast is only getting worse for next week! 
* Thursday – Hi 78  Lo 51 
* Friday – Hi 82  Lo 53 
* Saturday – Hi 87  Lo 60  
* Sunday – Hi 95  Lo 68 
* Monday – Hi 98  Lo 68 
* Tuesday – Hi 98  Lo 69 
* Wednesday – Hi 96  Lo 68
Not a drop of rain the entire time! I would not be surprised at a few 100-degree temperatures next week! 
UGLY!! Wow! 
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8/28/2023 – Drought Worsening

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We will likely see some rain in the next 24 to 26 hours, then turn dry again! The drought remains and seems to worsen before we can improve it. 
Here is the 7-day forecast for rain in the region. Yes, Loudoun is the driest look in the area. This is not good for planting grass (which is usually good in fall), and local water concerns will rise. It is time to consider water conservation until we get some good rains. 
The long-range shows a return to above-normal temperatures (90s) and below-normal precipitation. 
Once we get some stronger cool fronts and contrasting systems this fall, I expect some good rain totals, but we are again on the cusp of showing severe drought in some locations for the next few weeks.
I've attached the 7-day precipitation prediction by the Weather Prediction Center. This is more generous than some of the forecast models. 
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Loudoun County Weather Outlook for Sunday, August 27, 2023

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It is much cooler with some showers in the next few days. We really need rain, especially in western Loudoun. This week turns super nice from Wednesday through Saturday!

I will be watching and praying for those who will be in the path of the new Tropical Storm, likely to be Hurricane, Idalia in the Gulf. We will probably just get some slight impacts from this storm with nice skies (sinking air around tropical systems usually clear skies well beyond the center) and some breezes, but the storm will likely go off the Southeastern coast.

We will warm up some in the long-range and, unfortunately, it still looks drier than usual.

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