Loudoun Weather

Just plain ridiculously hot today and tomorrow. With the slight westerly winds, the dewpoints will come down a bit, making the heat index around 105 today and not the super hot ones we could have had. That is why we are in a heat advisory, not an Excessive Heat Warning. That slight drying from the winds coming down the mountains will keep the air a touch drier. What is not clear is if that also will translate into higher temps than forecast. I would not be surprised if it does. When air sinks, it warms, and it could make us a few degrees hotter than forecast. It is also possible some clouds and showers or storms could help lower the highs.. we can hope, but westerly winds are not good for showers and storms either. 

The break will come on Wednesday. AGAIN, I do NOT LIKE the trajectory of the front and winds. This has already influenced the expected rain totals and brought them down some. That is not a trend we want to see. I do think we will see some showers and some storms around the area on Wednesday, but these could be too little or not well organized, which would make us see less rain! :

We will “cool” to near average temps from Thursday through the weekend. Things look a bit unsettled for the weekend, which could mean showers and storms in the afternoon. We can hope. 

The extended gives me hope that the next few days will be the hottest stretch of summer and that we will be near normal for the next few weeks. It is still pretty hot, but maybe not so oppressive! 

Stay cool, drink fluids, and be sensitive to your pet's and animal's needs. Check on neighbors and make sure they have good AC. Do what you can to help those in the sweltering heat! 

The forecast:

Today: Hi 99 Lo 72 🥵🌡️🌤️ ⛈️ 30%  – 🥵 Sunny and hot with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Heat index values as high as 106. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening.

Tuesday: Hi 101 Lo 74 🥵🌡️☀️ ⛈️20% – 🥵 Sunny and hot with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Heat index values as high as 107. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms at night.

Wednesday: Hi 95 Lo 71 🌤️⛈️ 70%  ⛈️60% – 🥵 Partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. 

Thursday: Hi 85 Lo 63 🌤️ 30% 🌙 – Cooler! Partly sunny with a chance of showers. 

Friday: Hi 86 Lo 66 🌤️- Mostly sunny

Saturday: Hi 84 Lo 67 🌤️ 30%  – Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers at night.

Sunday: Hi 87 🌤️⛈️ 30% – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Some rain – but NOT A LOT! This will be a painful day for us, especially in western Loudoun. Unless we get some thunderstorms, the rain may be less than a tenth of an inch. The radar looks great to our south, but the rain dries up as it gets close to Loudoun. This is the pattern, and this will likely be the case. It is possible that people in far eastern Loudoun will get some more significant rain, maybe up to half an inch. 

We are going to really heat up Sunday through Wednesday. A few 100+ days are possible. Rain chances will return later next week and we will need to watch for the potential of severe weather. 

There seems good support for a brief break in temperatures coming in the long range. 

The forecast:

Today: Hi 78 Lo 70 ⛈️⛈️ 90% – Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Light east wind.

Saturday: Hi 91 Lo 71 🌤️🌙 20% – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny during the day and partly cloudy at night with calm wind.

Sunday: Hi 96 Lo 71 ☀️🌙  – 🥵 Sunny and HOT!

Monday: Hi 99 Lo 73 ☀️🌙  – 🥵🌡️ Sunny and VERY HOT!

Tuesday: Hi 99 Lo 73 ☀️🌙  – 🥵🌡️Sunny and VERY HOT!

Wednesday: Hi 96 Lo 68 ⛈️⛈️ 50% 🥵 – Very Hot with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

Thursday: Hi 85 ⛈️🌙 40% – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny and cooler!

As mentioned. The longer range shows temps heading to normal and even below normal if the models are correct. Still time enough that this could change. We will watch.

Slurpee day! 🙂 It will not be as hot and humid today. It definitely feels better this morning. 

Things are looking better for rain tomorrow, but I don't know how much. We really need the rain. That front stalling I mentioned earlier this week is likely too far east for us, so I would not expect much unless we get some thunderstorms.

It will get dangerously hot again early next week, with several chances of 100+ degrees for the actual high. We will likely meet the Excessive Heat Warning criteria many have wondered about. 

The forecast:

Today: Hi 89 Lo 68 🌤️🌙 – Mostly sunny with a light northwest wind, becoming partly cloudy with a light north wind at night.

Friday: Hi 82 Lo 70 ⛈️⛈️ 60% – Partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, continuing into the night with calmer winds.

Saturday: Hi 92 Lo 71 ☀️ ⛈️ 30% – Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mostly clear at night.

Sunday: Hi 96 Lo 71 ☀️🌙 🥵 – Sunny and mostly clear.

Monday: Hi 98 Lo 73 ☀️🌙 🥵🌡️ – Sunny and hot, mostly clear at night.

Tuesday: Hi 99 Lo 74 ☀️🌙 🥵🌡️ – Sunny and hot, partly cloudy at night.

Wednesday: Hi 97 ☀️ ⛈️ 40% 🥵 – Mostly sunny and hot with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The long-range starts well above normal for temperatures, but for the first time in a while, the longer-range shows us getting closer to normal temperatures. Normal temperatures this time of year are still in the upper 80s, as we are in the hottest stretch of the year! There is still a slightly above-normal chance for rain, but we have not capitalized on this here! 

Attached is the rain outlook for the next 7 days. You can see how close the heavier rains are and it is painful for our backyards. 

Heating back up today, but the humidity will only slowly increase. 

It will be hot tomorrow, but how hot it is will depend on how soon clouds arrive, and, potentially, showers and storms. The storms tomorrow could be strong to severe, posing a risk of strong winds. 

More reasonable summer temps return on Thursday and Friday. We have more 90s coming this weekend, but scattered showers and storms are also possible. 

The forecast: 

Today: Hi 92 Lo 70 ☀️🌙 – Sunny with light and variable winds, becoming partly cloudy at night with southwest winds

Wednesday: Hi 97 Lo 68 🌤️⛈️ 50% – 🥵 Partly sunny, hot, and humid with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, becoming mostly cloudy with likely showers and thunderstorms at night

Thursday: Hi 86 Lo 63 🌤️🌙 30% – Mostly sunny with a slight chance of morning showers and thunderstorms, becoming mostly clear at night

Friday: Hi 87 Lo 70 🌤️🌙 – Mostly sunny during the day, becoming mostly cloudy at night

Saturday: Hi 91 Lo 74 🌤️⛈️ 40% – Partly sunny with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, remaining mostly cloudy at night with continued chances of showers and thunderstorms

Sunday: Hi 92 Lo 65 🌤️⛈️ 50% – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and night, becoming partly cloudy later

Monday: Hi 83 Lo 61 ☀️🌙 – Cooler, Sunny and mostly clear

We could cool briefly next Monday, but temps are looking to turn hot and conditions drier as we head towards the Fourth of July.

Attached is the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center outlook risk for severe storms TOMORROW showing a slight risk (2 out of 5 on their scale)

6/23/2024 – Another HOT ONE with a heat advisory, but relief is on the way as a front IS on the way today! It will swing through late today/tonight and MIGHT bring some showers and storms (we can hope!). With it being so hot, we also have the possibility of severe storms, the biggest threat being severe winds.

We will get a break tomorrow with less humidity and lower temperatures. 

Temps will return to the 90s Tuesday and even hotter Wednesday with another threat of heat advisory conditions. 

We have a better chance of showers and storms on Wednesday. Then, we will be a bit cooler on Thursday and have a few more showers. Unfortunately, temperatures will remain hot, from the upper 80s to the low and mid-90s, as we get into next weekend. The heat does not seem to want to go anywhere as we head into the following week. 

The forecast:

Heat advisory until 7pm

Sunday: Hi 95 Lo 72 ⛈️🌙 30% – 🥵HOT! Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening

Monday: Hi 87 Lo 62 ☀️🌙 – Sunny and mostly clear

Tuesday: Hi 90 Lo 69 ☀️🌙 – Sunny, becoming partly cloudy in the evening

Wednesday: Hi 96 Lo 70 ⛈️🌙 40% – 🥵 HOT! Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, becoming mostly cloudy with likely showers and thunderstorms at night

Thursday: Hi 87 Lo 64 🌤️🌙 30% – Mostly sunny with a chance of showers, mostly clear in the evening with lingering showers

Friday: Hi 89 Lo 68 ☀️🌙 – Sunny, becoming partly cloudy at night

Saturday: Hi 93 Lo 70⛈️ 🌙 30% – Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms

The Extended forecast looks hot! Although we could get some rain next weekend, the trends look like drying conditions as we head into July! 

ATTACHED – This is the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center outlook, showing a slight risk of severe storms.