The local outlook

A wet week will start overnight tonight… but — HOW MUCH RAIN?

Late last evening, I was saying I saw a pullback in the rain. A half inch to maybe 1.5 inches is possible, but now it looks like we will have around three-quarters of an inch on average. THIS FORECAST MAY either get wetter or drier based on the models. The challenge is a blocking high to the north. That high pressure stops the system's northward movement from the south. It looked like it would be weaker for a few days, allowing a lot more rain, but the trend is reversing. 

Attached is the latest from the Weather Prediction Center – but this has been fluctuating and definitely trending drier than its wetter outlooks.

70s for the week. We may be able to clear by Saturday, but Sunday is looking beautiful. 

The forecast:

Today: Hi 74 ☁️ Lo 64 🌧️ 40% – Mostly cloudy with a chance of late-night showers

Tuesday: Hi 74 🌧️ 60% Lo 65 ⛈️ 70% – Showers likely in the afternoon, with thunderstorms possible overnight

Wednesday: Hi 73 🌧️⛈️ 60% Lo 64 🌧️ 50% – Showers and thunderstorms likely during the day, with a chance of showers continuing at night

Thursday: Hi 75 🌧️ 50% Lo 62 🌧️ 40% – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers throughout the day and night

Friday: Hi 77 🌤️🌧️ 30% Lo 60 🌧️ 30% – Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the afternoon and early evening

Saturday: Hi 73 🌤️ 🌧️ 30% Lo 57 🌧️ 30% – Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers

Sunday: Hi 71 ☀️ Lo 54 🌙 – Mostly sunny and clear

#loudoun #loudouncountyva #vawx #loudounweather #loudounva #virginiaweather

Please support Tree of Life Ministries, an important organization to me! https://www.tolministries.org

The rain chances have increased and now we will struggle a bit to get the amounts. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain this week seems likely. There is a strong possibility we will see more than that, but between 1 and 3 inches is the best forecast at this point, with the idea that around 2 inches is the area-wide average. 

We could see more rain as tropical moisture is involved, which could result in some heavy downpours. 

The heaviest rain should fall on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the forecast beyond that is a bit unknown. 

It is possible that some showers could be here into next weekend. Temperatures will be held in the low to mid 70s for the most part. 

This drought needs an extended few days of rain! 

The forecast:

Today: Hi 82 ☀️ Lo 57 🌙 – Sunny with light winds becoming partly cloudy tonight

Monday: Hi 76 🌤️ Lo 63 ☁️ 40% – Partly sunny with a chance of rain overnight

Tuesday: Hi 69 🌧️ 70% Lo 65 ⛈️ 80% – Rain likely during the day, continuing with thunderstorms at night

Wednesday: Hi 75 🌧️⛈️ 80% Lo 65 🌧️ 60% – Showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the day and night

Thursday: Hi 74 🌧️ 60% Lo 63 🌧️ 60% – Showers likely, mostly cloudy

Friday: Hi 73 🌤️ 40% Lo 60 ☁️ 30% – Partly sunny with a chance of showers

Saturday: Hi 71 🌤️ 30% Lo 57 🌙 – Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers

#loudoun #loudouncountyva #vawx #loudounweather #loudounva #virginiaweather

Please support Tree of Life Ministries, an important organization to me! https://www.tolministries.org

Looks warm and sunny this weekend even if we get some fog late at night and early morning. 

Rain chances seem more and more likely based on models, but there is some caution as we have seen models back off on rain after being robust in the past. The 7 day outlook is much improved for total rainfall! 

The forecast:

Today: Hi 83 🌤️ Lo 57 🌙 – Patchy fog before 10am, then sunny with light winds

Sunday: Hi 81 ☀️ Lo 57 🌙 – Sunny and clear with light winds

Monday: Hi 77 🌤️ Lo 60 🌙 20% – Partly sunny, mostly cloudy late with a slight chance of rain after 2am

Tuesday: Hi 74 🌧️30% Lo 63 🌧️40% – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers throughout the day and night

Wednesday: Hi 77 🌧️40% Lo 64 🌧️40% – Partly sunny with showers possible during the day and night

Thursday: Hi 77 🌧️40% Lo 63 🌧️30% – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through the day and night

Friday: Hi 77 🌧️30% Lo 63 🌧️30% – Partly sunny with a chance of showers

#loudoun #loudouncountyva #vawx #loudounweather #loudounva #virginiaweather

Please support Tree of Life Ministries, an important organization to me! https://www.tolministries.org

Happy Friday the 13th! LOL! The weather is not scary. The fog broke up and should finish soon. Dry and warm days with seasonably cool nights will continue until Tuesday through Thursday. The rain chances and amounts are still a challenge. We could get much more than what is showing or a lot less! Models are struggling with how hard the strong high to the north will block northward movement. The American model is quite wet, while the European keeps us drier. Confidence will come up late this weekend. 

The forecast:

Today: Hi 81 🌤️ Lo 61 🌙 – Patchy fog early, gradually clearing to mostly sunny skies with light winds.

Saturday: Hi 85 ☀️ Lo 57 🌙 – Patchy fog early, then sunny with calm winds.

Sunday: Hi 81 ☀️ Lo 56 🌙 – Sunny and clear with light northeast winds.

Monday: Hi 78 🌤️ Lo 59 ☁️ – Mostly sunny, becoming mostly cloudy by night.

Tuesday: Hi 75 🌦️30% Lo 63 🌧️30% – Partly sunny with a chance of afternoon showers.

Wednesday: Hi 78 🌦️40% Lo 64 🌧️30% – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.

Thursday: Hi 78 🌦️30% Lo 63 🌧️30% Partly sunny with a chance of showers.

#loudoun #loudouncountyva #vawx #loudounweather #loudounva #virginiaweather

Please support Tree of Life Ministries, an important organization to me! https://www.tolministries.org

Another warm and dry day! The same forecast remains for next week. A low pressure will form to our south and try to make it up this way. Models are insistent on keeping the bulk of the moisture to the south of us. I hope this changes, but the trends have not been great for us. 

The forecast:

Today: Hi 81 🌤️ Lo 59 🌙 – Sunny with calm winds becoming southeast in the afternoon; partly cloudy with patchy fog after 5am

Friday: Hi 79 ☁️ Lo 60 🌙 – Mostly cloudy with patchy fog in the morning, then partly cloudy overnight

Saturday: Hi 83 🌤️ Lo 58 🌙 – Mostly sunny and clear with calm winds

Sunday: Hi 81 🌤️ Lo 60 🌙 – Mostly sunny and partly cloudy later

Monday: Hi 78 🌤️ Lo 62 ☁️ – Partly sunny during the day and mostly cloudy at night

Tuesday: Hi 77 🌤️🌧️30% Lo 58 🌧️40% – Partly sunny with a chance of showers in the day and more showers overnight

Wednesday: Hi 77 ☁️🌧️40% Lo 57 🌧️30% – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers

#loudoun #loudouncountyva #vawx #loudounweather #loudounva #virginiaweather

Please support Tree of Life Ministries, an important organization to me! https://www.tolministries.org